Epizootic situation on sheep pox and goat pox in Tajikistan in 2000–2021

Modeling of potential nosoareals of sheep pox and goat pox that was performed in 2016 revealed a possible trend for aggravation of epizootic situation intensity with regard to these diseases up to 2020, but taking into account the cyclical fluctuations of the situation, it was assumed that the intensity level might reduce in 2017–2020. The highest frequency of reporting these nosounits was characteristic of regions with a higher probability of sheep pox and goat pox occurrence. The retrospective analysis was used to determine the structure, dynamics and properties of the epizootic process of these infectious diseases in the Republic of Tajikistan in 2000–2021. The main causes of sheep pox and goat pox outbreaks in the country were identified. The obtained results confirming the methodological validity of the epizootic situation analysis carried out in 2016 and correctness of the developed models of potential sheep pox and goat pox nosoareals, can become the basis for epizootological prediction of infectious disease risk when the pathogen interacts with susceptible animal population in specific climatic, socio-economic, organizational and managemental conditions. Based on systemic epidemiological analysis of the structure and dynamics of nosoareals, as well as risk assessment of sheep pox and goat pox entry, emergence and distribution, monitoring and establishment of infected and endemic zones, the features and patterns of distribution and occurrence of these diseases’ epizootic process were defined, which confirms the need for a systematic approach to epidemiological surveillance of highly dangerous and economically significant infectious diseases having a trend for transboundary spread, which will facilitate the solution of the problem regarding identification of possible threats and the implementation of veterinary and sanitary measures in case of disease occurrence in the territory of any country to ensure animal disease freedom. 

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