Rabies in the Russian Federation: A 35-year review of trends, patterns, and influencing factors

Introduction. Sylvatic rabies cases characterized by a consistently high incidence among wild and domestic animals are reported in the Russian Federation. The epizootic cycle of rabies is maintained through the biological reservoir of Lyssavirus rabies in wild canid predators, primarily the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Fox ecology and behavior determine the spatial spread of rabies, its seasonal incidence patterns, and the species composition of animals involved in the epizootic cycle. Objective. The rabies spatiotemporal analysis of 35-year monitoring data to study determinants and patters of the current disease situation.

Materials and methods. Using Microsoft Access (relational database management system www.microsoft.com) the data on rabies outbreaks in the Russian Federation, rabies vaccination among wild animals and natural and agricultural zoning were aggregated. For spatial analysis, all epizootiological data were geocoded and visualized as vector map layers within the GIS thematic project. The GIS project was constructed using QGIS Desktop platform (www.qgis.org).

Results. The current rabies distribution area covers most of the Russian regions. The area of persistently high rabies incidence primarily encompasses the forest-steppe, mixed forest, and broadleaf forest biomes of the East European Plain. In the Russian Federation, the maximum number of rabies cases is reported among foxes. Rabies epizootics in natural ecosystems exhibit spillover effects, leading to active transmission among multiple domestic animal species. The primary risk group involves dogs, cats and cattle. Oral rabies vaccination of wild carnivores established a significant downward trend in animal rabies incidence while reducing amplitude fluctuations in long-term epizootic cycle.

Conclusion. The observed decline in rabies incidence across the Russian Federation has not been accompanied by a proportional reduction in the disease’s geographic distribution. These findings underscore the need to modify current control measures and implement a comprehensive program for complete elimination of circulating Lyssavirus rabies strains from infected ecosystems.

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