Analytical hierarchy process as a tool supporting a decision-making for assessment of the risk of transboundary infectious animal disease introduction to the Russian Federation and previously disease-free territories

The livestock industry is increasingly taking its place in the economy of the Russian Federation. Its export potential is actively growing. Already, up to 10% of agricultural products are exported to foreign markets. The demand for food steadily increases during crises, which in turn increases the role of the veterinary service, whose tasks include protecting the country’s territory from the introduction of infectious diseases of animals from foreign countries; implementation of measures to prevent and eliminate infectious and other diseases in agricultural, domestic, zoo and other animals, fur-bearing animals, birds, fish and bees, as well as the implementation of plans of the regional veterinary service in the field of animal husbandry. The article assesses the validity of the possibilities and use of modern methods of analyzing and predicting the spread of animal morbidity, identifying cause-and-effect relationships and the extent of the spread of particularly dangerous animal diseases. The authors propose to consider the possibility of using the mathematical method of hierarchy analysis as a scientifically sound decisionmaking support tool when assessing the risk of introducing trans-border infectious animal diseases into previously prosperous territories of the Russian Federation. This approach can be used in the process of choosing the most appropriate alternative from several risk assessment options. The Hierarchy Analysis Method (MAI) is a mathematical tool for a qualitative systematic approach to solving decision-making problems. This method was developed by the American scientist Thomas Lewis Saati in 1970, since then it has been actively developing and widely used in practice. The hierarchy analysis method can be used not only to compare objects, but also to solve more complex management and forecasting tasks. 

1. Staroverov V. I., Vartanova M. L. Russia’s food security as an important component of the country’s demographic policy. Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya. 2019; 9 (4): 2851–2862. DOI: 10.18334/eo.9.4.41461. (in Russ.)

2. Vartanova M. L. Global trends in food policy and their impact on demographic development. Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya. 2019; 9 (4): 2877–2888. DOI: 10.18334/eo.9.4.41507. (in Russ.).

3. Veterinary Law of the Russian Federation 14.05.1993 No. 4979-1. Available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_4438/. (in Russ.).

4. Virology Manual. Viruses and viral infections in humans and animals. Ed. by D. K. Lvov. Moscow: Medical Informational Agency Publishers; 2013. 1200 p. (in Russ.)

5. Animal infectious pathology in 2 vlms. Vol. 1. Ed. by A. Ya. Samuylenko et al. Moscow: Akademkniga; 2006. 910 p. (in Russ.)

6. FAO Expert Consultation on the Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases (Livestock Diseases Programme) including the Blueprint for Global Rinderpest Eradication and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Prevention and control of transboundary animal diseases: report of the FAO Expert Consultation on the Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases (Livestock Diseases Programme) including the Blueprint for Global Rinderpest Eradication, Rome, Italy, 24–26 July 1996. Available at: https://www.fao.org/3/W3737E/W3737E00.htm.

7. Animal Diseases. Available at: https://www.woah.org/en/what-we-do/animal-health-and-welfare/animal-diseases.

8. Meuwissen M. P., Horst S. H., Huirne R. B., Dijkhuizen A. A. A model to estimate the financial consequences of classical swine fever out breaks: principles and outcomes. Prev. Vet. Med. 1991; 42 (3–4): 249–270. DOI: 10.1016/s0167-5877(99)00079-3.

9. Yang P. C., Chu R. M., Chung W. B., Sung H. T. Epidemiological characteristics and financial costs of the 1997 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Taiwan. Vet. Rec. 1999; 145 (25): 731–734. DOI: 10.1136/vr.145.25.731.

10. Thompson D., Muriel P., Russell D., Osborne P., Bromley A., Rowland M., et al. Economic costs of the foot and mouth disease outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. Rev. Sci. Tech. 2002; 21 (3): 675–687. DOI: 10.20506/ rst.21.3.1353.

11. Zepeda C., Morilla A., Yoon K.‐J., Zimmerman J. The social impact of disease control and eradication programs: case studies. In: Trends in Emerging Viral Infections of Swine. 2002; 17–20. DOI: 10.1002/9780470376812.ch1c.

12. Makarov V. V., Grubyi V. A., Gruzdev K. N., Sukharev O. I. OIE List and transboundary animal infections: monograph. Vladimir: FGBI “ARRIAH”; 2012. 162 p. (in Russ.)

13. Approval of the List of contagious and other animal diseases: Order of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation 09.03.2011 No. 62. Available at: https://base.garant.ru/2174787. (in Russ.)

14. Dudin M. N., Shkodinskiy S. V., Usmanov D. I. Bifurcation analysis of the current state of the Russian economy: the impact of COVID-19 on key development processes. Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya. 2022; 12 (2): 155–178. DOI: 10.18334/eo.12.2.114554. (in Russ.)

15. Beltran-Alcrudo D., Falco J. R., Raizman E., Dietze K. Transboundary spread of pig diseases: the role of international trade and travel. BMC Vet. Res. 2019; 15:64. DOI: 10.1186/s12917-019-1800-5.

16. Zepeda C., Salman M., Ruppanner R. International trade, animal health and veterinary epidemiology: challenges and opportunities. Prev. Vet. Med. 2001; 48 (4): 261–271. DOI: 10.1016/s0167-5877(00)00200-2.

17. Alyokhin A. F., Mischenko V. A. Osobennosti techeniya chumy sredi krupnogo rogatogo skota, vypasayushchegosya na otgonnom pastbishche = Peculiarities of rinderpest course in cattle grazing on distant pastures. Voprosy veterinarnoi. virusologii, mikrobiologii i epizootologii: materialy nauchnoi konferentsii VNIIVViM (Pokrov, 13–18 aprelya 1992 g.). T. 1 =Aspects of Veerinary Virology, Microbiology and Eepizootology: Proceedings of the ARRIVV&M Conference (Pokrov, April 13–18, 1992). Vol. 1 . Pokrov; 1992; 151–152. (in Russ.)

18. Bandi Ts. Effectiveness of complex system of anti-epidemic measures against foot-and-mouth disease in Mongolia in 2011–2013: Author’s Abstract of Theses for degree of Candidate of Science (Veterinary Medicine). Vladimir; 2013. 25 p. (in Russ.).

19. Belik E. V., Dudnikov S. А., Lyadskiy M. M., Belchihina A. V., Gulyonkin V. M., Karaulov A. K., Dudorova M. V. Analysis of the risk of African swine fever introduction and spread in the Vladimir Oblast: information and analytical review. Vladimir; FGI “ARRIAH”. 2009. 97 p. (in Russ.)

20. Bouchemla F., Agoltsov V. A., Popova O. M., Padilo L. P. Assessment of the peste des petits ruminants world epizootic situation and estimate its spreading to Russia. Vet. World. 2018; 11 (5): 612–619. DOI: 10.14202/ vetworld.2018.612-619.

21. Gulenkin V. M., Karaulov A. K., Lozovoy D. A., Zakharov V. M. Expert risk assessment of FMD introduction to the Russian Federation from infected countries. Veterinary Science Today. 2018; (2): 36–41. DOI: 10.29326/2304- 196X-2018-2-25-36-41.

22. Karaulov A. K., Gulenkin V. M., Titov M. A., Zakharov V. M., Dudnikova N. S., Dudnikov S. A. Risk analysis of bluetongue (ovine catarrhal fever) introduction with imported cattle to Russia from Western Europe countries. Russian Veterinary Journal Productive Animals. 2008; Special Issue (September): 33–35. (in Russ.)

23. Kononov A. V., Karaulov A. K., Gulenkin V. M., Piskunov A. V., Petrova O. N., Sprygin A. V., et al. Prediction for peste des petits ruminants in the Russian Federation for 2019. In: Predictions for contagious animal diseases in the Russian Federation for 2019. Vladimir: FGBI “ARRIAH”; 2018; 233–250. (in Russ.)

24. Pharo H. J. Foot-and-mouth disease: an assessment of the risks facing New Zealand. N. Z. Vet. J. 2002; 50 (2): 46–55. DOI: 10.1080/00480169. 2002.36250.

25. Boev B. V., Makarov V. V. Geo-informatsionnye sistemy i epidemii grippa = Geoinformation systems and influenza epidemics. Veterinarnaya patologiya. 2004; 3: 51–59. eLIBRARY ID: 9165685. (in Russ.)

26. Gintsburg A. L., Boev B. V. Komp’yuternoe modelirovanie epidemii = Computer modeling of epidemics. Science in Russia. 2005; 5: 52–57. eLIBRARY ID: 17688485. (in Russ.)

27. Belchihina A. V., Dudorova M. V. Razrabotka na baze Arc GIS atlasa epidznachimykh ob”ektov Vladimirskoi oblasti = Development of atlas of epidemiologically-significant facilities of the Vladimir Oblast based on Arc GIS database. Geoinformatsionnye sistemy v zdravookhranenii RF: dannye, analitika, resheniya: trudy 1-i i 2-i Vserossiiskikh konferentsii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem (26–27 maya, 2011 g. i 24–25 maya 2012 g.) = Geoinformation systems in health care system of the Russian Federation: data, analytics, decisions: proceedings of the 1st and 2d All-Russia Conferences with international participation (26–27 May, 2011 and 24–25 May, 2012). Saint Petersburg: Beresta; 2013; 42–45. (in Russ.)

28. Korennoy F. I. Mathematical and cartographic modeling of the spread of highly dangerous livestock diseases: author’s thesis of Candidate of Science (Geography). Moscow; 2019. 22 p. (in Russ.)

29. Amimo J. O., Okoth E., Junga J. O., Ogara W. O., Njahira M. N., Wang Q., et al. Molecular detection and genetic characterization of kobuviruses and astroviruses in asymptomatic local pigs in East Africa. Arch. Virol. 2014; 159 (6): 1313–1319. DOI: 10.1007/s00705-013-1942-x.

30. Huang Y. W., Dickerman A. W., Piñeyro P., Li L., Fang L., Kiehne R., et al. Origin, evolution, and genotyping of emergent porcine epidemic diarrhea virus strains in the United States. mBio. 2013; 4 (5):e00737-13. DOI: 10.1128/ mBio.00737-13.

31. Zhou X., Li N., Luo Y., Liu Y., Miao F., Chen T., et al. Emergence of African swine fever in China, 2018. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 2018; 65 (6): 1482–1484. DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12989.

32. Korennoy F. I., Petrova O. N., Karaulov A. K. Use of the GIS geo-spatial analysis tools for identification of spatio-temporal patterns of zoonotic infection spread. Available at: https://snipchi.ru/updoc/2017/Prezentazii/Коренной%20Ф.%20И.%20«Применение%20инструментов%20 геопространственного%20анализа.pdf. (in Russ.)

33. Petrova O. N., Korennoy F. I., Karaulov A. K., Shevtsov A. A., Gulenkin V. M. Prediction for African swine fever in the Russian Federation for 2020 (final version). Available at: https://fsvps.gov.ru/fsvps-docs/ru/iac/asf/ publications/asf_prognoz2020.pdf. (in Russ.)

34. Mischenko V. A., Pavlov D. K., Dumova V. V., Nikeshina T. B., Getmanskiy O. I., Kononov A. V., Lisitsyn V. V. Ekologicheskie osobennosti zabolevanii pishchevaritel’noi sistemy novorozhdennykh telyat = Ecological peculiarities of gastro-intestinal diseases in neonatal claves. Veterinarnaya patologiya. 2005; 3: 34–38. eLIBRARY ID: 9167885. (in Russ.)

35. Gulenkin V. M., Korennoy F. I., Karaulov A. K., Dudnikov S. A. Cartographical analysis of African swine fever outbreaks in the territory of the Russian Federation and computer modeling of the basic reproduction ratio. Prev. Vet. Med. 2011; 102 (3): 167–174. DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.07.004.

36. Korennoy F. I., Gulenkin V. M., Gogin A. E., Vergne T., Karaulov A. K. Estimating the basic reproductive number for African swine fever using the Ukrainian historical epidemic of 1977. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 2017; 64 (6): 1858–1866. DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12583.

37. Korennoy F. I., Gulenkin V. M., Malone J. B., Mores C. N., Dudnikov S. A., Stevenson M. A. Spatio-temporal modeling of the African swine fever epidemic in the Russian Federation, 2007–2012. Spat. Spatiotemporal. Epidemiol. 2014; 11: 135–141. DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2014.04.002.

38. Vergne T., Korennoy F., Combelles L., Gogin A., Pfeiffer D. U. Modelling African swine fever presence and reported abundance in the Russian Federation using national surveillance data from 2007 to 2014. Spat. Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2016; 19: 70–77. DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2016.06.002.

39. Dudnikov S. A. Quantitative epidemiology: basics of applied epidemiology and biostatistics. Vladimir: Demiurg; 2005. 459 p. (in Russ.)

40. Miller J., Burton K., Fund J., Self A. Process review for development of quantitative risk analyses for transboundary animal disease to pathogen-free territories. BioResearch Open Access. 2017; 6 (1): 133–140. DOI: 10.1089/biores.2016.0046.

41. Oganesyan A. S., Baskakova N. Ye., Karaulov A. K. Methodological Guidelines for semi-quantitative assessment of the risk associated with import (entry/movements) of live animals and products of animal origin: methodical material. Vladimir: FGBI “ARRIAH”; 2016. 22 p. (in Russ.)

42. Cherkassky B. L. Risk in epidemiology. Moscow: Prakticheskaya meditsina; 2007. 476 p. (in Russ.) 43. Shevtsov A. A., Karaulov A. K., Dudnikov S. A., Titov M. A., Usov A. V., Korennoy F. I., Bardina N. S. Analysis of risk of African swine fever introduction to the Russian Federation fromTranscaucasia (situation as ofJune 2008). Vladimir: FGI “ARRIAH”; 2008. 72 p. (in Russ.)

43. Amanatin A., Sudarnika E., Lukman D. W., Wibawan I. W. T. Risk assessment on rabies entry through hunting dog movement with semi-quantitative approach to Sumatera Island, Indonesia. J. Adv. Vet. Anim. Res. 2019; 6 (2): 148–157. DOI: 10.5455/javar.2019.f325.

44. Ezell B. Homeland Security Risk Modeling. In: Handbook of Real-World Applications in Modeling and Simulation. Ed. by J. A. Sokolowski, C. M. Banks. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.; 2012; 129–164. DOI: 10.1002/9781118241042.ch4.

45. Terebova S. V., Koltun G. G., Podvalova V. V., Korotkova I. P. Risk analysis of the spread of african swine fever in Primorsky krai. Agrarian bulletin of Primorye. 2020; 1 (17): 13–19. eLIBRARY ID: 42918095. (in Russ.)

46. Gulenkin V. M., Korennoy F. I., Karaulov A. K. Methodical recommendationsfor quantitative (score) assessment of the expert group opinions on animal infectious disease epidemiology, animal and fish productsafety: approved by FGBI “ARRIAH” 21.09.2017 No. 41-17. Vladimir; 2017. 18 p. (in Russ.)

47. Gudkov P. A. Comparative analysis methods: study guide. Ed. by A. M. Bershadskiy. Penza: Penza State University; 2008. 81 p. (in Russ.)

48. SaatyT. L. TheAnalyticHierarchyProcess: Planning, Priority Setting, ResourceAllocation (DecisionMakingSeries). NewYork: McGraw-Hill; 1980. 287 p.

49. Saaty T. L. Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic Network Process. Pittsburgh: Rws Publications; 1996. 370 p.

50. Romanov V. N. Systemic analysis for engineers. Saint Petersburg: NWSCTU; 2006. 186 p. (in Russ.).