veterinaryВетеринария сегодняVeterinary Science Today2304-196X2658-6959"Veinard"10.29326/2304-196X-2024-13-1-64-72veterinary-792Research ArticleОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ | БОЛЕЗНИ СВИНЕЙORIGINAL ARTICLES | PORCINE DISEASESФакторы риска распространения африканской чумы свиней среди диких кабанов в Российской ФедерацииRisk factors for African swine fever spread in wild boar in the Russian Federationhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1408-2989ЗахароваО. И.ZakharovaO. I.

Захарова Ольга Игоревна, научный сотрудник лаборатории эпизоотологии и биоинформатики

ул. Ветеринарная, 3, г. Нижний Новгород, 603950

Olga I. Zakharova, Researcher, Laboratory of Epizootology and Bioinformatics

3 Veterinarnaya str., Nizhny Novgorod 603950

ozakharova@ficvim.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5161-1184БлохинА. А.BlokhinA. A.

Блохин Андрей Александрович, канд. вет. наук, заведующий лабораторией эпизоотологии и биоинформатики

ул. Ветеринарная, 3, г. Нижний Новгород, 603950

Andrey A. Blokhin, Cand. Sci. (Veterinary Medicine), Head of Laboratory of Epizootology and Bioinformatics

3 Veterinarnaya str., Nizhny Novgorod 603950

and.bloxin2010@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5396-0334БуроваО. А.BurovaO. A.

Бурова Ольга Александровна, заместитель руководителя группы эпизоотологии и биоинформатики

ул. Ветеринарная, 3, г. Нижний Новгород, 603950

Olga A. Burova, Deputy Head of the Group of Epizootology and Bioinformatics

3 Veterinarnaya str., Nizhny Novgorod 603950

burovaolga@list.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7359-2041ЯшинИ. В.YashinI. V.

Яшин Иван Вячеславович, канд. биол. наук, директор

ул. Ветеринарная, 3, г. Нижний Новгород, 603950

Ivan V. Yashin, Cand. Sci. (Biology), Director

3 Veterinarnaya str., Nizhny Novgorod 603950

ivanyashin@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7378-3531КореннойФ. И.KorennoyF. I.

Коренной Федор Игоревич, канд. геогр. наук, старший научный сотрудник информационно-аналитического центра

мкр. Юрьевец, г. Владимир, 600901

Fedor I. Korennoy, Cand. Sci. (Geography), Senior Researcher, Information and Analysis Centre

Yur’evets, Vladimir 600901

korennoy@arriah.ruФГБНУ «Федеральный исследовательский центр вирусологии и микробиологии» (ФГБНУ ФИЦВиМ); Нижегородский научно-исследовательский ветеринарный институт – филиал ФГБНУ «Федеральный исследовательский центр вирусологии и микробиологии» (ННИВИ – филиал ФГБНУ ФИЦВиМ)РоссияFederal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology; Nizhny Novgorod Research Veterinary Institute – Branch of Federal Research Center for Virology and MicrobiologyRussian FederationФГБУ «Федеральный центр охраны здоровья животных» (ФГБУ «ВНИИЗЖ»)РоссияFederal Centre for Animal HealthRussian Federation2024150320241316472Copyright © Захарова О.И., Блохин А.А., Бурова О.А., Яшин И.В., Коренной Ф.И., 20242024Захарова О.И., Блохин А.А., Бурова О.А., Яшин И.В., Коренной Ф.И.Zakharova O.I., Blokhin A.A., Burova O.A., Yashin I.V., Korennoy F.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://veterinary.arriah.ru/jour/article/view/792

Анализ и оценка факторов риска, связанных с возникновением, распространением и персистенцией вируса африканской чумы свиней в популяции диких кабанов, представляет собой важный инструмент в определении стратегических мер, направленных на ликвидацию и смягчение последствий эпизоотий. Детальное изучение зарубежной и отечественной литературы позволило сделать вывод, что факторы управления популяциями диких кабанов, социально-экономические и связанные с внешней средой, в основном определяющие плотность и численность животных, являлись наиболее значимыми и ассоциированными с риском возникновения очагов африканской чумы свиней в дикой фауне. Для выявления факторов риска распространения заболевания среди диких кабанов в субъектах Российской Федерации была построена регрессионная модель, исследующая взаимосвязь между ежегодным количеством вспышек африканской чумы свиней среди кабанов на уровне муниципальных районов, плотностью популяции кабана и рядом других факторов за период с 2007 по 2022 г. По результатам проведенного регрессионного моделирования на уровне субъектов в 42,5% модельных регионов Российской Федерации была выявлена положительная взаимосвязь интенсивности вспышек заболевания и плотности популяции кабана. Другими значимыми факторами явились протяженность автодорог, наличие лесного покрова и вспышек среди домашних свиней. Однако в целом для всех неблагополучных субъектов регрессионная модель показала несостоятельность фактора плотности популяции кабана для объяснения наблюдаемого распределения вспышек африканской чумы свиней, что может указывать на наличие иных эпизоотических драйверов распространения заболевания в дикой природе. Одним из таких механизмов может являться сохранение инфекционного потенциала во внешней среде и в сформированных стационарных локальных очагах африканской чумы свиней, несмотря на принимаемые противоэпизоотические мероприятия, включающие в себя и меры по регулированию численности восприимчивого поголовья – депопуляцию.

The analysis and assessment of risk factors associated with the occurrence, spread and persistence of African swine fever (ASF) virus in wild boar population are an important tool in determining the strategic measures aimed at eradicating epizootics and mitigating their consequences. A thorough examination of foreign and domestic literature revealed that wild boar population management factors, socio-economic and environmental ones, that mainly account for the density and number of animals were the most significant and associated with the risk of ASF outbreak occurrence in wild animals. In order to identify risk factors for the spread of the disease in wild boar in the Russian Federation Subjects, a regression model was built to examine the relationship between the annual number of ASF outbreaks in wild boar at the municipal raion level, wild boar population density and some other factors for the period between 2007 and 2022. Based on the Subject-level regression modelling results, a positive association between the intensity of the disease outbreaks and wild boar population density was identified in 42.5% of the model regions of the Russian Federation. Other significant factors were the length of roads, the presence of forest cover and outbreaks in domestic pigs. However, on the whole, for all the infected Subjects, the regression model demonstrated the failure of the wild boar population density factor to explain the observed ASF outbreak distribution, and this may be indicative of the existence of other epizootic drivers of the disease spread in the wild. One of such mechanisms may be the persistence of infectious potential in the external environment and in the formed stationary local foci of African swine fever, despite the anti-epizootic measures taken, including the measures aimed at regulating the number of susceptible population – depopulation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.